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Date: Sat, October 13, 2012 7:49 am (answered 14 October 2011)
> I quite agree with your point about assuming which side of the Laffer Curve we are on. That is the common cretique. But there is more to it. The assumption is that the tax lowers the volume of the underlying transfer. But does a tax on food lower the consumption much? Does a tax on income lower the income? No it does not. It is not about the curve. The curve does not even exist for general income. It only exists for things like candy. I was just remembering that Elvis Presley paid a 92% income tax rate, and that still did not stop him from working and making money, and becoming a millionaire. And the Beatles paid a 95% tax rate in Great Britain. So apparently we have to go awfully high up on the Laffer curve before taxes discourage people from working and making money.
> What I wonder about the Laffer Curve is, "What has the real result of reducing taxes on the rich been?" The result is a lack of consumption and too much liquidity, or too little to invest in. Therefore the investing went into bubbles.
Blaming it on "liquidity" doesn't mention the fact that Allan Greenspan repeatedly turned on the money faucet
whenever the economy started to slow down a little, resulting in a lot of money with nowhere to go, except into
another bubble. That was the cause of the excess "liquidity".
Greenspan set interest rates so low that corporations and investment banks (read "speculation banks")
could profit by borrowing money from the Fed almost for free and then gambling with it in the next bubble.
We had the Internet/hi-tech bubble, and the real estate bubble, and then
the finance/mortgage/credit-default-swap
bubbles, all caused by that same oversupply of money looking for somewhere to go.
I seem to recall that the American people were consuming their usual amounts of junk,
but they couldn't sanely consume the amounts of cash that Greespan was dumping into the economy.
> Funny how the proponents of even more tax cuts for the rich ignore those facts, and continue to claim that things will be great if the rich pay even less. And even greater if they pay nothing. Yes.
> It looks to me like some greedy pigs just don't want to pay taxes. And that is pretty much all that there is to it. Of cause you can stimulate an economy both monetarily and fiscally. Either you raise the deficit or you let others borrow more, by lowering the interest-rate. After decades of stimulus the government ran out of stimulus and now faces the structural / underlying problems. They kept doping a sick horse and ran out of drugs. Moritz
Yes, exactly. The Fed cannot reduce the interest rate below zero. Coincidentally,
the Japanese have had
their interest rates at zero for a decade and it didn't pull the Japanese economy
out of the doldrums.
One possible explanation is the fact that the Japanese outsourced their jobs to
China. "Made In Japan"
used to be synonymous with "cheap junk", but not any more. Now Japanese
labor is expensive, so the
Japanese corporations have subcontracted out the work to China. When I bought an
expensive Olympus DSLR
camera, I thought I was buying a Japanese camera. Nope. It says "Made in China"
on the bottom.
Now China's economy is booming, growing at a world-record rate, while the USA and
Japan are suffering.
It seems obvious that prosperity goes with the jobs. Where the jobs go, so does
the money.
The one solution to our current economic problems
that nobody has tried yet is the one that I thought President Obama
would start the day that he got into office (and should have): works programs. That is
what President Roosevelt finally used during the Great Depression: WPA, CCC, and
the like. We have a crumbling infrastructure, pot-holey roads, bridges falling
down, and decaying cities that are begging for millions of workers to come and
fix things, while millions of people sit around unemployed and running out of
benefits, and becoming "Ninety-niners". The solution seems obvious to me.
The only complaint against that is that it will raise the deficit some more, at
least temporarily. Somehow that doesn't seem as important as families having both
parents unemployed for years, and losing their house, which is then stripped of metal
and destroyed by vandals when it is unoccupied, so that entire neighborhoods
get trashed and Cincinatti has to bulldoze 100,000 trashed-out homes. It would have been
better for America to keep those families in those homes.
And even worse, doing nothing is also raising the deficit, because we are still
funding the Pentagon and two wars and a zillion pork-barrel projects.
And Congressmen who sold their souls to the
Devil made it the law that Medicare cannot negotiate drug prices down, and things
like that. The government can't just stop doing everything to avoid running up deficits.
So might as well do something useful.
Oh well, have a good day now.
== Orange
[The next letter from Moritz_G is here.]
Date: Sat, October 13, 2012 9:11 am (answered 14 October 2011) Sent from my iPad
Hello Dion,
Well, you opened with a very interesting line, but the body of the message was missing.
Is what how someone becomes a cult leader?
Have a good day now.
== Orange
OP ED: 16 October 2012
Laura Tompkins recently wrote an article for the Huffington Post, criticizing A.A. for
being too negative:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/laura-tompkins/alcoholics-anonymous_b_1383849.html
A "sober lawyer" named "Dick" attacked Laura and defended A.A. in his blog:
Dick's response is just loaded with A.A. slogans and misinformation.
I want to respond to a few of his statements (in red):
That is true, whether Dick likes it or not.
Many years ago, way back in 1980, the famous government think tank,
the Rand Corporation, found
that the successful people who had stopped self-destructive drinking
were evenly split between total abstinence and tapering off into
moderate, controlled, drinking. So total abstinence is not the only way.
It all depends on the individual person.
When that Rand Corporation report was published, the A.A. true believers had a hissy-fit.
They screamed that the Rand Corporation was killing alcoholics by saying that.
Ann Landers indignantly printed a denunciation
and said that it was irresponsible to release such information.
As if alcoholics are too stupid to handle the truth.
(Remember Jack Nicholson screaming, "The truth? You can't handle the truth!")
But in my experience, alcoholics are not a separate species of stupid sub-humans.
They are as intelligent as the rest of the people, and they need more true
information, not less. (What a
vicious, insulting stereotype
of alcoholics
A.A. really spreads.)
See:
Baloney. That is the typical A.A. arrogance where they think they are the only ones who
know anything about alcohol abuse or addiction or recovery.
Now I am an alcoholic who has 12 years of sobriety — 12 years off of all
alcohol, tobacco, and drugs — and I've been to a bunch of A.A. meetings, too,
so even by Mr. Dick's standards, I know what
I'm talking about. And I agree with Laura Tompkins. She is telling the truth.
Actually, she did offer alternatives, and Dick just listed them in his complaint:
SMART and Rational Recovery. Also, counseling and moderate, controlled, drinking.
Besides which, when criticizing crimes like fraud, quackery, and medical malpractice,
it isn't necessary to offer alternatives to committing the crime. I don't have to
offer an alternative to Tom Cruise's crazy idea of Scientology psychotherapy
defending us from interplanetary cooties and the nasty Galactic Overlord Xenu, do I?
And I don't have to offer an alternative to doing
the practices of an old pro-Nazi cult religion
from the nineteen-thirties.
The answer is just stop doing it.
You don't need a substitute cult to replace the one that you are dumping.
False. I've seen it with my own eyes, plenty. When a newcomer speaks without saying,
"My name is XXX and I'm an alcoholic", someone quickly jumps on his
case and instructs him to introduce himself "properly".
And the same thing happens at Narcotics Anonymous meetings if people fail to say,
"...and I'm an addict."
Chelsea Carmona, a writer for the Washington Post, also recognized the requirement to
identify oneself as an alcoholic or an addict, and she described the harmful effects
of such self-labeling this way:
That is perhaps the most disheartening aspect of 12-step recovery and inpatient
care: Because most of their AA colleagues are older, the adolescents I met in
treatment found more drug connections, party buddies and rehab romances than they
did mentors, counselors and long-term sober friends.
Get real. A.A. sponsors do it to sponsees all of the time. Try reading my list
of A.A. horror stories for many descriptions of even worse abuse:
Just a few examples from that list:
That's the problem with having ignorant, untrained, unprincipled,
uncertified sponsors acting as amateur doctors, amateur psychiatrists, and amateur priests.
Wrong. That is mythology. There is no such "disease" as
"alcoholism". The American Psychiatric Association recognizes alcohol
abuse and alcohol dependence as mental illnesses, but the "spiritual disease"
of "alcoholism" is just a myth. Addiction is a choice.
Furthermore, most people recover from alcohol abuse and addictions spontaneously,
by themselves, without joining a cult religion.
The Harvard Mental Health Letter, from the Harvard Medical School, reported:
Wrong. We just covered that. Half of the alcoholics who recover do it by tapering
off into moderate, controlled, drinking. And yes, they are "real alcoholics".
Mr. Dick is trying to use the Real Scotsman Logical Fallacy:
"They aren't real alcoholics if they recover without
A.A.... They aren't real alcoholics if they can eventually drink moderately."
That is wishful thinking. I have received many stories of blabbermouth
sponsors, even sponsors who vindictively gossiped people's personal secrets all
over town in revenge for someone quitting A.A.
The list of A.A. horror stories
contains many stories of egregious breaches of confidentiality like:
She also had plenty to say about sexual abuse in A.A., which is a subject that
Dick carefully avoided talking about.
A "Higher Power" who isn't "God"? Fat chance.
That is just
another bait-and-switch trick.
First, as a recruiting trick, A.A. says that
you don't have to believe anything,
but then,
later on, you do.
Bill Wilson had a lot to say about how you had to
"find God" or you would die:
Bait and switch. Don't reveal the truth to the newcomers.
Baloney. Bill Wilson himself sarcastically sneered at people who didn't do all of his Steps
that he copied from Frank Buchman's Oxford Group cult religion:
And once again, Bill Wilson declares that you must find God or you will die.
That is
the logical fallacy of asserting that something is good because it is old.
The Jehovah's Witnesses, the Mormons, and the Ku Klux Klan
have all survived even longer. Does that prove them right?
And A.A. is not growing, it is shrinking. The last several Triennial Surveys have revealed that the
A.A. membership is declining. It's over. A.A. is just an old cult religion from
the nineteen-thirties that has run its course.
It will eventually join the "Shakers" and the "Dukhobors"
and "Russellism" and other forgotten oddities of cult religions.
Look here for much more about the A.A. "growth rate", or rather, lack of it:
No, actually, guys like Dick speak for it.
And you know what Dick did not say? What the A.A. success rate really is. If we send 1,000 randomly-selected alcoholics to A.A., how many of them will be clean and sober a year later? How well does A.A. really work?
It turns out that A.A. works no better than no treatment or help at all.
Out of each 1000 newcomers to A.A., how many will pick up a one-year
sobriety medallion a year later?
No qualifiers are allowed, like, "We will only count the people who worked the program right, or
we will only count the people who really tried, and kept coming back."
Everybody counts. No exceptions.
No excuses are allowed. When the doctor gives a patient penicillin, and it fails to cure the infection,
the doctor doesn't get to say, "But he didn't work the program right. He didn't pray enough.
He didn't surrender. He held something back in his Fifth Step."
No excuses.
So what's the actual A.A. cure rate?
Have a good day now.
== Orange
Date: Mon, October 15, 2012 8:14 am (answered 16 October 2012)
Peter Ferentzy, PhD
Hi again, Peter,
Thanks for the email. Now that is of interest.
Have a good day now.
== Orange
Date: Sat, October 13, 2012 10:47 pm (answered 16 October 2012) Hi Orange, I came across your site and find the cult section immensely helpful, as I was involved in the new-age movement for years, and prior to that I grew up in Christianity, then switched to Paganism. While in the new-age movement (the most dangerous, in my opinion), I read every author of Hayhouse, am sad to report that my beloved PBS channels now offer Wayne Dyer as programming, and am surprised you did not include Byron Katie's scary cult as one of your examples of psychological tactics. I had a question, and would very much like to hear your oppinion on rehab programs like Promises (all the celebrities go there) and Origins Recovery Center and La Hacienda (Dr. Phil sends all the addicts there.) It would be interesting to hear your take on those types of places, as they seem to be country-club resorts as well as "top-notch" treatment programs, though I wonder just how top-notch they are. I read your recovery story and commend you on needing a brief intervention to get the job done, but I also recognize that some people really do need long-term care (or at least think they do) judging by the number of times they've been told "you're gonna die if you don't quit" and they still engage in drugs anyway. Thanks so much for a wonderful, informative site! Angie
Hello Angie,
Thanks for the letter and the compliments and the questions.
Well, first off, I don't object to PBS running programs of Dr. Wayne Dyer. I like him.
He has a high truth-to-noise ratio in his teachings.
I never heard of "Byron Katie's scary cult" before. I shall have to check it out.
About those fashionable, luxurious California rehabs like Promises of Malibu, I have a very
low opinion of them. They seem like a good way to waste $40,000.
We have all been entertained by the stories of movie stars going there, and coming out
28 days later
raving about how they have been helped, and they've seen the light, and it's all
so wonderful. Then, a few months later, they are back in court for DWI or some drug bust,
same as usual. Then, they tell the judge that they will go back to "rehab"
for more "treatment".
I consider Dr. Phil's TV show to be beneath contempt. He is playing vicious games with
people's lives just to get ratings.
I wonder how much people need long-term treatment. The classic test of that was the
study done in England by Doctors Jim Orford and Griffith Edwards. It was the biggest and longest and
most expensive test of A.A.-based treatment in Great Britain. They took a bunch of alcoholics
and randomly divided them into two groups.
One group got the full hospital-based treatment program with lots of A.A. meetings, and
full access to all of the facilities of the hospital. That went on for a year.
The other group got a doctor talking to the alcoholic and his wife for only one hour,
only one time, telling him to quit drinking or he would die.
That was the entire "treatment program". Just one hour.
Nevertheless, at the end of the year, both groups were equally sober.
All of the treatment and A.A. meetings and "moral support" for a year did nothing
more than just a one-hour talk with the doctor.
You can read more about the test here:
http://www.orange-papers.info/orange-effectiveness.html#Orford
By the way, if people really want an on-going support group for moral support, they
can go to things like SMART or SOS where they won't get so much misinformation
and quackery and cult religion.
Have a good day now.
== Orange
Well, here it is another year again. How time flies when you are goofing off.
Today it's 12 years off of alcohol and drugs. And in three more weeks, it will be 12 years off of
cigarettes and any other form of tobacco, too.
It's also been about 10 1/2 years since I've been to an A.A. meeting, even to just pick up a coin.
Have a good day now.
Date: Wed, August 15, 2012 6:19 pm (answered 21 October 2012) Great Terry, Yes, indeed I do know how much money you save by riding a bike and not owning a car. I do detailed budgeting, pay cash out of envelopes for most things. I follow many minimalist, simple living, tiny homes, small homes, debt free blogs. I am evolving that direction. Many things have left my home the past few weeks. The transition has been going on for years though. I am searching for what is right for me in terms of how I can live comfortably and peacefully. I don't want to carry burden, don't want a lot of money to manage, certainly don't want a lot of "things" which only burden me and cause me to be a burden to others and burden the planet. I hope to leave the south. I don't like it here. I was afraid they would start shooting over the Chicken sandwich anti-gay thing, so I stayed close to home that day. For the most part, people here's answer to most everything is (1) get a gun, (2) pray about it or (3) come to our church. I pass two rebel flags everyday when I walk out of my apartment on my way to the parking lot. I too am much happier with less, less of most everything. I shopped at my local Goodwill store on Saturday! Great find, a bike for $10!! Most everything I have was bought used. Fits me just fine. Basic cable comes with my apartment but I surely would not pay for it. My TV gets turned on about 10 hours a year! I'm thinking of selling it! I would love to hear more about your simple lifestyle. Have you always lived with the values you have now? What caused you to make changes? How did you figure it all out? Thank you for sharing, Terri
Hi again, Terri,
Sorry to take so long to answer this. I set it aside for special handling because you
were asking some good questions, and it got kind of buried behind the rush of incoming stuff.
Anyway, here we are.
I'm also living pretty minimalistically, even if it isn't entirely by choice. Or maybe it is.
If I'm not motivated enough to work and scheme and scam to get more money to support a lavish lifestyle,
then that just might be a choice, no matter whether it's conscious or unconscious.
If I don't feel like its worth it to sacrifice a big chunk of my life and go through a lot of suffering
to get more money to get more things, then that is a choice.
Still, I have a zillion things and some friends call me a packrat or a hoarder. So I'm not a sterling example of
minimalistic living at all. Not at all like the guy I just saw on TV who only owned around 50 things, including
his hairbrush. It's more like I enjoy frugal living. I think they call it champagne living on a beer budget.
For example, I take pictures with a high-class camera that cost $3000 new. Now I didn't pay that much for it,
I got it used for $1000. Still, it's a good camera, and it's an example of what I can get if I don't waste my
money on a car. Or a telephone. Or unnecessary expenses like that. So I'm really just choosing other priorities.
I guess I like cameras more than cars or telephones.
About the rebel flag thing: I thought about what would happen if somebody put up such a flag
in Portland, and had a bit of a laugh. It would make a great TV show — a wacky comedy.
An angry noisy mob would quickly assemble in front of the house, and the
police would have to be called to protect the rebel flag and its owner. And they would argue over his right
to free speech versus offending people and hurting their feelings and the veiled endorsement of racism.
Then the local TV news teams would show up and make a big deal of it.
The flag owner would undoubtedly be shamed
into taking the flag down within hours, or two days at most. I can see it as an episode of "Portlandia".
A script writer could have fun with that plot line.
Speaking of which, if you leave the South, Portland is another world to consider. I mean, it is literally
another world. I've also lived in the South for a while, in Arkansas and North Carolina, and from that I can
say for sure that Portland is on another planet compared to the South.
I also shop at Goodwill all of the time, and most of what I have I bought used,
or surplus. Actually, I've gotten so spoiled that I mostly buy just new clothes
at Goodwill now. High-end stores donate lots of new stuff to Goodwill —
stock clearances, and discarding slightly flawed new stuff.
I love the kids with the candy fingers.
Some kid touches new clothes in an upscale store, and they are ruined instantly.
Well, actually not ruined, but
they have candy on them, and the store can't sell them in that condition.
The store cannot waste the effort and money and employees' time to wash the clothes,
because if they do, then the clothes are used, not new, so it's a no-win money-losing
proposition, no matter whether they wash them or not.
So off to Goodwill the stuff goes, for a tax deduction. One washing, and the candy
is gone, and I have brand new clothes
at 80% or 90% off. I even wait for the stuff to go to half price before I buy it, so it is really cheap.
I have gotten a large wardrobe of beautiful new clothes that way.
(So that isn't exactly a minimalistic lifestyle.)
Getting a good bicycle for $10 was a bit of luck. It was priced so low because the seat was missing. Hence it's
an incomplete unrideable fixer-upper, and they priced it accordingly. I bought it for parts to fix my current bike, but quickly
realized that it was in much better shape than the one I already had, so I reversed the order and took the seat
and other parts off
of my old bike. That kind of balances out the fact that I paid too much for my first used bike,
and too many things broke too soon. So it goes. Still, it balances out, and I'm getting around incredibly cheaply.
Speaking of which, I'm also getting good exercise. At my annual checkups, the doctor raves about what
good shape I'm in, for my age. Part of that is due to
the fact that I ride a bicycle everywhere, for miles almost every day, rather than sitting in a car pushing down a gas pedal.
Guys my age getting no exercise is a killer. It's really the great American killer — no exercise — and it
causes everything from obesity to heart attacks. So when I ride my bike around, I'm saving both money and my life.
Funny how that works.
No, I haven't always had all of the values that I have now. Some yes, some no. My thinking was undoubtedly heavily
influenced by living on a hippie commune for years. Out there, we had land and trees, and that's it. I mean literally
that's it. We had to dig a well for water. Then we had to build our houses.
I scrounged old nails and spikes out of an abandoned and rotted out building that had collapsed into a pile of sawdust
30 years earlier, and used the spikes to tack together the logs for my house.
It's an incredible experience for absolutely everything that is manmade to come from an outside world.
It just gives you a different perspective. It makes you very conscious of what things are and where they come from.
Now that doesn't mean that we were totally primitive and totally without technology. What did the guys do as soon as they
could? Get electric guitars and form a band. Use a generator for electricity.
Still, such an experience leaves you with a different set of values. Like what is really important, when you come right
down to it? Better have a good ax and a bowsaw. You can live without a gun, but you need that ax and saw.
Now of course living in a city or town presents a different set of problems, and you can survive without the ax or saw,
but I still find that I have a primitive sort of set of values where I'm always thinking about simple survival, like food
and firewood, and how to survive if the system breaks down.
And I have also gotten an ax and saw from Goodwill, too, and I keep them stashed in a closet, just in case.
And I'd like to live even further out in the boondocks, and will, if the opportunity presents itself.
About how I got it all figured out, I don't know that I have. I have just arrived at a place where I'm pretty happy
with how things are. But I'm still working on the big things, like enlightenment and spirituality and perfection, or as
close as I can get to it.
Have a good day now.
== Terry
Last updated 7 March 2013. |